Poll results for 2016 Republican presidential candidates show that the methods used to collect poll data are inaccurate. In fact:
| POLING METHOD | Trump | Carson | Cruz | Huckabee | Santorum |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PLURALITY VOTING | 25% | 18% | 23% | 2% | 2% |
| PLURALITY (no Carson) | 25% | - | 32% | 7% | 6% |
| INDEPENDENT VOTING* | 25% | 43% | 45% | 40% | 37% |
| INDEPENDENT (no Carson) | 25% | - | 45% | 40% | 37% |
Here is an example of how the polls are biased today (winner green):
| POLING METHOD | A | B | C | D |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PLURALITY VOTING | 30% | 23% | 25% | 22% |
| PLURALITY VOTING (no candidate B) | 30% | - | 37% | 33% |
| INDEPENDENT VOTING* | 25% | 68% | 70% | 67% |
| INDEPENDENT VOTING (no candidate B) | 25% | - | 70% | 67% |
Here is another example of how the polls are biased (winner green):
Plurality Voting System polls do not agree with public opinion. The bias is that it wrongly requires people to choose only one candidate.
* Assuming that nobody in the same party would vote NO on anyone in that party.
| POLL IS IN THIS FORM: |
Check (√) only one you like:
Candidate A [ ] Candidate B [ ] Candidate C [ ] |
Check (√) all you like:
Candidate A [ ] Candidate B [ ] Candidate C [ ] |
Rank these (1st to 3rd):
Candidate A [ ] Candidate B [ ] Candidate C [ ] |
Pick from each pair:
Candidate A or B [ ] Candidate A or C [ ] Candidate B or C [ ] |
Pick Yes, No, or Abstain:
Candidate A [Y] [N] [A] Candidate B [Y] [N] [A] Candidate C [Y] [N] [A] |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KEY WORDS |
SELECT ONLY ONE CHECK ONLY ONE |
SELECT ALL YOU LIKE CHECK ANY |
RANK THESE IN ORDER SELECT 1ST TO 3RD |
PICK FROM EACH PAIR PICK BEST EACH ROW |
DO FOR EACH CHOICE PICK YES NO ABSTAIN |
| IS POLL FAIR? |
NO | NO | NO | NO | YES |
| REASON | Requires each person to favor only one candidate. | Gives some people more statistical weight than others get. | Doesn't indicate whether person likes or dislikes some candidates. | Doesn't indicate whether person likes or dislikes some candidates. | Collects information correctly. |
| WHAT TO SAY TO THE POLL TAKER: |
Multiple-Choice is not a valid polling method when people can have multiple preferences. This poll is biased, so it is unscientific. | Check what you agree with is not a balanced polling method when the items are related. This poll is biased, so it is not scientific. | Ranking does not indicate the point where the subject stops liking candidates and starts disliking them. This poll is biased, and is not scientific. | Ranking does not indicate the point where the subject stops liking candidates and starts disliking them. This poll is biased, and is not scientific. | This poll is unique. It collects information correctly. You guys know what you are doing. |
| WHAT TO PUT ON THE POLL FORM: |
Leave the answers blank. Write "Invalid Plurality Voting poll question" in the margin. | Check what you agree with. Write "Invalid poll question" in the margin. | Select only the choices you agree with. Write "Ranking is statistical garbage" in the margin. | Select only the choices you agree with. Write "Ranking is statistical garbage" in the margin. | Answer the poll truthfully. Make no notations. |
| POLL PROPERTIES | 2ND EXAMPLE ABOVE (%) | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| METHOD | EXAMPLE | FAIR? | ATTRIBUTES AND FAULTS | A | B | C | D | WIN | |||
| Plurality | Check Only One: | Cand 1 | Cand 2 | Cand 3: | NO | Won't count multiple preference. | 30 | 23 | 25 | 22 | A |
| Plurality Runoff | Uses above poll, 2nd round (method for polls shown below) | NO | Won't count multiple preference. | 30 | - | 70 | - | C | |||
| Approval | Check Any Number: | Cand 1 | Cand 2 | Cand 3: | NO | Respondent power inequality. | 30 | 69 | 70 | 67 | C |
| Approval Runoff | Uses above poll, 2nd round (method for polls shown below) | NO | Respondent power inequality. | - | 64 | 36 | - | B | |||
| METHOD | EXAMPLE | FAIR? | ATTRIBUTES AND FAULTS | A | B | C | D | WIN | |||
| Ranking | Check 1st Choice: | Cand 1 | Cand 2 | Cand 3: | NO | Can't tell likes from dislikes. | 30 | 23 | 25 | 22 | (1st) |
| Check 2nd Choice: | Cand 1 | Cand 2 | Cand 3: | 0 | 35 | 32 | 33 | (2nd) | |||
| Check 3rd Choice: | Cand 1 | Cand 2 | Cand 3: | 0 | 32 | 33 | 35 | (3rd) | |||
| Check 4th Choice: | 70 | 10 | 10 | 10 | (4th) | ||||||
| Borda Count | Uses above table, scoring = 3(#1)+2(#2)+1(#3) | NO | Can't tell likes from dislikes. | 90 | 171 | 172 | 167 | C | |||
| Instant Runoff | Uses above, scoring | NO | Order reversal possible. | 30 | 70 | →B | →B | B | |||
| METHOD | EXAMPLE | FAIR? | ATTRIBUTES AND FAULTS | A | B | C | D | WIN | |||
| Pairings | Check your favorite: | Cand 1 | Cand 2 | NO | Can't tell likes from dislikes. | ### | √ 70 | √ 70 | √ 70 | > A | |
| Check your favorite: | Cand 1 | Cand 3: | 30 | ### | √ 52 | 49 | > B | ||||
| Check your favorite: | Cand 2 | Cand 3: | 30 | 48 | ### | 47 | > C | ||||
| Check your favorite: | 30 | √ 51 | √ 53 | ### | > D | ||||||
| Condorcet scoring: | [Count the √s] Scoring: | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | C | |||||
| METHOD | EXAMPLE | FAIR? | ATTRIBUTES AND FAULTS | A | B | C | D | WIN | |||
| Independent | Check None Or One: | Cand 1 | YES | NO | YES | Correctly represents opinion. | 30 | 68 | 70 | 67 | YES |
| Check None Or One: | Cand 2 | YES | NO | 70 | 30 | 30 | 30 | NO | |||
| Check None Or One: | Cand 3: | YES | NO | [YES - NO] Scoring: | -40 | 38 | 40 | 37 | C | ||
If a poll wants to simulate a system that uses a runoff, it usually collects data for the first part normally, and also collects either a ranking or a pairing set to simulate the runoff results.
Because the elections use the same methods the polls use, they have the same biases.
Since most elections use the Plurality Voting System, polls using the Plurality Voting System will accurately predict the outcome of the election.
But neither correctly represents public opinion.
People favoring multiple candidates are disenfranchised.
It is wrong thinking to expect each person to like only one candidate.
| POLL PROPERTIES | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| METHOD | EXAMPLE | DATA TYPE | FAIR? | ATTRIBUTES AND FAULTS | |||
| Plurality Rate Grouped | Check Only One: | Agree | Neutral | Disagree | Categorical | YES | No exact value for respondant |
| Plurality Rate Number | Rate from 1 to 3: | 1 (low) | 2 | 3 (high) | Numerical | YES | Values equally spaced. |
| Plurality Which is Better? | Check Only One: | Choice 1 | Choice 2 | Choice 3 | Categorical | NO | Won't count multiple preference. |
| Plurality Runoff Which is Better | Uses above poll, 2nd round (method for polls shown below) | Categorical | NO | Won't count multiple preference. | |||
| Approval | Check Any Number: | Choice 1 | Choice 2 | Choice 3: | Categorical | NO | Respondent power inequality. |
| Approval Runoff | Uses above poll, 2nd round (method for polls shown below) | Categorical | NO | Respondent power inequality. | |||
| METHOD | EXAMPLE | DATA TYPE | FAIR? | ATTRIBUTES AND FAULTS | |||
| Ranking | Check 1st Choice: | Choice 1 | Choice 2 | Choice 3: | Categorical | NO | Can't tell likes from dislikes. |
| Check 2nd Choice: | Choice 1 | Choice 2 | Choice 3: | ||||
| Check 3rd Choice: | Choice 1 | Choice 2 | Choice 3: | ||||
| Borda Count | Uses above table, scoring = 3(#1)+2(#2)+1(#3) | Categorical | NO | Can't tell likes from dislikes. | |||
| Instant Runoff | Uses above, scoring | Categorical | NO | Order reversal possible. | |||
| METHOD | EXAMPLE | DATA TYPE | FAIR? | ATTRIBUTES AND FAULTS | |||
| Pairings | Check your favorite: | Choice 1 | Choice 2 | Categorical | NO | Can't tell likes from dislikes. | |
| Check your favorite: | Choice 1 | Choice 3: | |||||
| Check your favorite: | Choice 2 | Choice 3: | |||||
| Condorcet scoring: | Count the pairs the choice won | ||||||
| METHOD | EXAMPLE | DATA TYPE | FAIR? | ATTRIBUTES AND FAULTS | |||
| Rating (Range 9) | Rate 1 (low) to 9 (high): | Choice 1 | Enter #: | _______ | Numerical | YES | Correctly represents opinion. Tie scores likely |
| Rate 1 (low) to 9 (high):: | Choice 2 | Enter #: | _______ | ||||
| Rate 1 (low) to 9 (high):: | Choice 3: | Enter #: | _______ | ||||
| METHOD | EXAMPLE | DATA TYPE | FAIR? | ATTRIBUTES AND FAULTS | |||
| Independent | Check None Or One: | Choice 1 | YES | NO | Categorical | YES | Correctly represents opinion. |
| Check None Or One: | Choice 2 | YES | NO | ||||
| Check None Or One: | Choice 3: | YES | NO | ||||
| Independent scoring: | [YES - NO] Scoring | ||||||
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